Anthony's Song 2024

 

NY Post 

 Four of New York City’s five boroughs have lost a higher percentage of residents since COVID than any of the 40 largest counties in the country, a startling new review of US Census data shows.

Topping the list is The Bronx — with a 7.2% drop in the past three years, according to the analysis of county-level population estimates.

“It’s been good for us — we get more work — but it’s sad,” said Manny Gomez, a 42-year-old Bronx resident and employee of Morgan and Brothers Manhattan, a storage and moving company, in the borough’s Mount Eden section.

 Rent is way higher. It’s going up. People move out of state because their apartments of 10, 20 years get too expensive,” Gomez told The Post on Monday.

“The little guy is getting screwed over. It’s not worth it to stay in the city.”

 The Bronx had 1,356,476 residents last year, according to the Census data — down from the 1,461,151 recorded in 2020.

Brooklyn’s Kings County came in at No. 2, suffering a 5.8% drop, and Queens County followed closely behind with a 5.7% decline in residents, according to the review carried out by ResiClub, a news and research outlet that covers the US housing market.

Manhattan’s New York County ranked fourth among the 40 largest counties in the US losing residents, with its population declining 4.8% since 2020, the analysis showed.

“It’s getting harder to live in New York,” said the owner of a U-Haul franchise in Sunnyside, Queens, who only gave her first name, Renna, to The Post — echoing what New Yorkers have been saying for several years.

 The cost of living in the city — whether it be soaring prices, rampant crime or the general rat race — is just too damn high for many people, while work-from-home options have made it easier to move out to cheaper, more spacious regions.

And the exodus is apparently continuing.

Leaving LIC and Astoria

 

 LIC Post

 Thousands of residents fled western Queens in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report published by the real estate group CBRE.

The report — which analyzed 29 million USPS address changes across the nation — found that nationwide people last year vacated large, costly cities in much bigger numbers that in previous years.

The nationwide trend rocked New York City. When the city became the epicenter of the pandemic, New Yorkers left in massive numbers. The Big Apple was second only to San Francisco in terms of the number of people who left large cities last year.

In Queens, most neighborhoods lost residents in 2020. Though the same was true in 2019, the net losses were significantly higher.

Long Island City and Astoria saw a mass exodus last year, the report shows.

Taken together, more than 21,500 residents left the two neighborhoods in 2020. However, on a net basis– people moving in and out– the number approached 7,000.

Many large residential towers in Long Island City saw their occupancy rates plummet in 2020, The Real Deal reported in January.

For instance, the publication reported that the occupancy rate at the 1,871-unit Jackson Park development, located on Jackson Avenue in Long Island City, declined from 96 percent in 2019 to 59 percent in September 2020.

Nearby, Linc LIC, a 715-unit building at 43-10 Crescent Street, saw its occupancy rate decline from 91 percent in 2019 to 67 percent in the third quarter of 2020.

Spurred by the pandemic, many residents ended their leases and moved to suburbs with more outdoor space when the city was largely shuttered, according to the authors of the report. This trend, however, is beginning to reverse.

The Long Island City ZIP code of 11101 saw 6,783 people leave last year, more than any other ZIP code in the borough. Last year — accounting for those who moved into the area — the 11101 district lost 2,278 residents, more than any other ZIP code in Queens.

Both Long Island City and Astoria have a high percentage of adults in their 20s and 30s, census data shows. Many are young working professionals, a group prone to moving, according to the report.

“The increase in moves in 2020 was driven by young, affluent and highly educated urban dwellers,” the CBRE study states.

Does this mean our developer overlords built all these towers for nothing? I'm outraged.

 

 

The wealthiest New Yorkers are bluffing

 

Curbed

After ten months of breathless panic over the state of Manhattan’s luxury real-estate market, the industry is sighing with relief as a surge in leases and rental prices suggests that the wealthy New Yorkers who left town at the onset of the pandemic are beginning to return. While Fran Lebowitz and other curmudgeons have cheered on the exodus of the rich, whether or not they return has big implications for the city’s budget and thus vital public services.

According to Douglas Elliman’s December rental report, rents for the biggest and most expensive apartments in Manhattan rose by double-digit percentages compared to the previous month. Rents on smaller apartments and in lower price tiers remained flat or declined slightly, remaining about 20 percent lower than a year ago. This pattern appears to be driven by demand, which is stronger at the high end and weaker below, with discounts of 20 percent compared to a year ago.

Manhattan’s vacancy rate dropped for the first time since the pandemic began, falling from 6.14 percent in November to 5.52 percent (it’s typically between 2 and 3 percent), which is as blunt a signal as you can get that people are returning to the city. The number of new December leases signed in Manhattan was up 36 percent compared to November and a whopping 93.6 percent from a year ago. The basic principles of supply and demand are at work here too; at some point, rents fall so much the deals are just too good to pass up, particularly in desirable Manhattan.

Taken together, these data offer a clear signal that the rich are coming back to New York. The idea that wealthy households would never return to the city was always a little suspect — mostly the fever dream of anti-urban conservatives who grabbed on to temporary post-pandemic migration trends in support of their biases against city life. But with the vaccine rollout underway, the rich are returning in time for what stands to be a memorably jubilant period: the reopening of New York City.

Lots of people jumping ship

From AM-NY:

The New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania metro area added 90,797 people between July 2013 and 2014, the third biggest gain in the U.S. But the New York metro area was unable to make the top 20 list of fastest-growing urban areas.

People nonetheless are still flocking to the city, but mainly from outside the U.S. International migration accounted for 85,438 new residents in a 12-month period ending June 2014, compared with 82,022 from July 2010 and 2011. Queens, long known as the most diverse borough, attracted the most people from other countries last year, with 27,072 people.

Domestically, however, more people moved out of the city than moved here over the past three years. Including people who moved to another borough, between 2013 and 2014:

Brooklyn lost 32,731 people, compared with 14,908 people between 2010 and 2011
Manhattan lost 21,582 people, compared with 3,620 in the 12-month period ending June 2011.
Queens lost 25,836 people, compared with 17,093 in 2011.
Bronx lost 17,199 people, compared with 18,237 in 2011.
Staten Island lost 2,044 people, compared with 2,099 in 2011.

Lots of people kissing NY & NJ goodbye

From Forbes:

More people are moving out of New Jersey than are moving in. The same is true for New York and Illinois. Those three states top the “outbound” list compiled by United Van Lines, the big St. Louis-based moving company that has put together an annual survey of where Americans are moving for the last 38 years. The company analyzed a total of 128,000 moves across the 48 continental states and the District of Columbia in 2014 and came up with a picture of migration patterns across the US.

According to Michael Stoll, a professor of public policy at University of California, Los Angeles, and a consultant to United Van Lines who studies American migration, the moves reflect the increasing numbers of retiring baby boomers who are leaving colder, more expensive states in the Northeast and Midwest in favor of lower-cost locations with retirement infrastructures like Florida and Arizona. Long-term shifts in the US economy and the hit to employment in many states resulting from the slow recovery are also prompting many Americans to relocate.

New Jersey has been stuck at the top of the outbound list for four of the past five years. In 2014 nearly 65% more people moved out than moved in. According to Stoll, the Great Recession hit the state especially hard, accelerating a longtime shift in manufacturing to the southern states, away from the Northeast. Damage done by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the slow pace of rebuilding since has also driven people away. Plus New Jersey has a population that is older than other states’ and the cold climate is driving retirement-age people south. Further, housing costs tend to be high there, especially in northern New Jersey which is subject to demand from people who work in Manhattan.

New York comes in at second place for some of the same reasons. High housing prices, more retirees and a desire for a warmer climate are driving lots of people out of the state. Like New Jersey, Illinois, at No. 3 on the list, got hit disproportionately hard by the Great Recession, notes Stoll, especially in the manufacturing sector, and the state has had a slow recovery. Though job losses have slowed, the rate of job growth in Illinois is still below the national average and its older population has been relocating.

A lot of people want to leave

From Patch:

More than 40 percent of New Yorkers surveyed in a recent Gallup poll said they would leave the state if they could.

Of all 50 states surveyed, New York tied New Jersey and Massachusetts for sixth place–at 41 percent–for the highest percentage of residents who would head for another state if given the chance.

The poll dug a little deeper, too, and asked residents if they were actually planning to move out of the state sometime in the next 12 months. Of those in New York who answered yes (16 percent), here are their reasons why:

Work/Business-related: 15%
Family/Friends: 16%
Weather/Location: 8%
Quality of Life/Change: 5%
School-related: 6%
Cost of Living: 21%
Taxes: 14%

It pays to do your homework

From the Daily News:

Diana Serrano and her husband Richard got a quote on the Web to move their furniture across 63rd Dr. in Rego Park to their new apartment in late February. But then they got scammed by the movers, who charged nearly 10 times their estimate and held their furniture for ransom when they balked, Serrano said.

“They wanted us to pay before they even unloaded the furniture,” said Serrano, 48, an administrative assistant. “They had the wheels turned to pull out of the driveway until we started banging on the door and screaming at them to stop.”

Serrano called the cops and the couple demanded to see an invoice. On their invoice, they saw a slew of new charges, including boxes, packaging tape and $100 per worker for having to use an elevator, for a total of $2,100. The original quote was for about $275. Serrano said cops bargained the driver down to $1,800 and managed to get their belongings, but the police did not get involved beyond that because they said it was a civil matter.

The company, Shelli Van Lines was given an “F” rating by the Better Business Bureau in New Jersey, where it is based.

Two openings on CB7

From the Times Ledger:

Gene Brennan began his long career in public service by serving nearly 20 years as a detective in the NYPD. During that time the Whitestone resident started to take part in the Dwarf Giraffe Little League, coaching, advocating, serving on its board and eventually rising to the level of league president.

It was through his work at Dwarf Giraffe that in 2003 Brennan found Community Board 7, where he hoped to have a greater impact and to get more work done for his community.

He has since served there as a board member and key member of its Public Safety Committee, but Eugene Kelty announced at the board’s June 13 meeting that health concerns have led Brennan, 70, to retire from his position there.

From the Times Ledger:

Robert LoPinto, one of the longest-serving members of Community Board 7, has stepped down from the board, giving up his seat as second vice president and taking decades of environmental engineering and community service expertise with him.

During his more than 20 years on the board, the Whitestone resident, who most know simply as “Bob,” has worked on a wide range of issues and for many years chaired its Environmental and Sanitation Committee.

But he is moving from Queens to Long Island and is president of Shapiro Engineering in Valley Stream, so he will no longer be eligible to participate on CB 7, so his tenure there is drawing to an early close.

Young people plan to bolt from the state

Editorial from the Daily News:

Here are facts that should be tattooed on the forehead of every elected official in Albany: One out of four adult New Yorkers - including one out of three below the age of 30 - plans to flee the state in the next five years.

So found a NY1/YNN-Marist poll, which also asked why people are itching to leave - and discovered, of course, that it's the economy, stupid.

The most cited factors for flight were New York's notorious cost of living, its highest-in-the-nation tax burden and its chronic shortage of jobs. All of which are the work of state leaders.

Keep in mind that this dismal survey was taken well after the approval of Gov. Cuomo's heralded first budget, which cut spending, avoided tax hikes and got done on time. On the basis of that one accomplishment, some legislators seem to think they've done enough reforming for the year. New Yorkers obviously disagree - and rightly so.

Cuomo's spending plan succeeded mainly in stopping the bleeding. What he and the Legislature must now tackle is the harder work of lowering the cost of living, easing the tax burden and spurring job creation.

Capping property taxes - one of the key proposals that Cuomo is currently barnstorming for - is an obvious and much-needed step in the right direction.

So, too, is getting a handle on the skyrocketing cost of government retirement benefits - by enrolling new hires in a 401(k)-style pension system and sharing health costs.

Other musts include shedding excess bureaucracy, deep-sixing frivolous or ineffective programs, controlling Medicaid outlays and rolling back costly and unnecessary mandates.

Then, maybe, people will want to live and work in New York again. Otherwise, they'll vote with their moving vans.