Wednesday, January 7, 2009

A million more people by 2030 ain't gonna happen


In better times, city officials banked on a population boom, but the recession has some urban planners saying the Bloomberg administration may need to reconsider its rosy estimate of a city of 9.1 million people in 2030.

Expectations of a population spike were buoyed by massive construction projects such as the troubled Hudson and Atlantic yards.

“The downturn in the real estate market signals that the city’s population is not likely to increase in the near-term future,” said Tom Angotti of Hunter College’s Center for Community Planning and Development.

The city released its estimate two years ago in the belief that immigration and more people choosing to stay in the city would aid growth. The administration cited its projection when discussing long-term plans for growth in infrastructure, energy, and housing.


Plans for population growth may be off

See previously: Is PlaNYC's growth prediction full of crap?

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Of course, your headline is not supported by the article.

The article only has one person claiming the population growth will not be as robust as claimed, but gives no reasoning for his guess.

All he says is that the real estate market has weakened, which, if anything, will INCREASE the population, because it increases affordability.

More important, NYC has much lower unemployment than other parts of the country, so will likely do better than other areas in terms of population growth.

Finally, the biggest demographic trend during recesssions is lack of residential mobility. This means that people who might have left in a stronger economy (selling their homes for mucho dinero and then moving to a cheaper area) will likely stay, because 1. Their homes cannot sell for what they expected, and 2. The Sunbelt jobs have evaporated, and unemployment is much higher in places like North Carolina.

I have already seen this here in Brooklyn. People are staying in larger numbers than before, while immigration and newcomers from the Midwest have both increased in recent months.

So I would guess, that if anything, the city's population estimates are conservative.

Anonymous said...

If what commenter #1 says is true, just wait til all the taxes, fares and whatnot increase. People will be moving on to greener pastures in droves, just like in the 1970s.

Anonymous said...

I think I'll trust the opinion of a well-respected urban planner rather than an anonymous commenter on a blog. But thanks for sharing.

Anonymous said...

I guess #1 hasn't heard the news that immigrants are returning home because the job market has dried up. Immigration counted for the lion's share of the growth in the 2030 plan.

Anonymous said...

Comment one may be right about the population growing maybe faster than expected but your way off on the employment being higher here than other states.Many different sectors are cutting back on staff.
At any rate its only a matter of time before this city fills up way past capacity.

Anonymous said...

Don't be fooled by the report, written by folks whom probably live in suburban NJ. The illegal population is growing rapidly especially among the Mexican and Chinese communities. Ultimately these folks will become legal and be counted, which they are not at this time.

Anonymous said...

“The downturn in the real estate market signals that the city’s population is not likely to increase in the near-term future". That does seem hard to support. The real estate market is getting crushed across the US, does that mean the US population will not be increasing in near-term future?

Queens Crapper said...

Historically during down times, people have had less kids. So the answer to your question is yes.

Wade Nichols said...

I think I'll trust the opinion of a well-respected urban planner rather than an anonymous commenter on a blog.

I think I'll trust neither. "Professional" economists are notoriously lousy in their predictions on the overall economy and macro-economic trends. That's why you don't see too many of them driving a Mercedes or cruising the oceans in a yacht. If their predictions were any good, they would be able to make a killing in the stock market.

What about all those silly predictions years ago about how we'd all be driving flying cars and travelling to outer space. How about "World War I, the war to end all wars"? Those predictions turned out dead wrong.

Anyone who claims to know the future is full of crap. Read the books Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for further insight on this issue. You're better off going to a fortune teller for an opinion, she knows about as much about the future as any phoney professional in a cheap suit knows.

Lastly, as Yogi Berra once said, "The future ain't what it used to be".

Anonymous said...

NYC is where the most jobs in the financial sector were lost, and these people in turn support a lot of other industries. So I believe growth will slow down considerably if not come to a halt.

Hell Gate Kid said...

The illegal population is growing rapidly especially among the Mexican and Chinese communities.
__________

The word is out around the world, NYC is a sanctuary city.

I will say this again and again. If you raise a family in 200 sq feet, and work for $3 a day, NYC is the land of golden opportunity.

You have 100s of millions of people ready to come here with full knowledge that the only important people that matter will beg them (damn the results) to come.

As taxes go up and services decline, the tax base will flee (hello 60s and 70s)

I can see NY with 10 - 15 -20 million. A Calcutta, Sao Pulo, Logos wrapped up into one juicy enchelata.

(And Wade, a successful stock broker is a bit like a chimp writing Shakespeake. If you get enough of em randomly banging on the keyboard, sooner or later you will get Romeo & Juliet)

Wade Nichols said...

(And Wade, a successful stock broker is a bit like a chimp writing Shakespeake. If you get enough of em randomly banging on the keyboard, sooner or later you will get Romeo & Juliet)

Exactly what Taleb says in his two books I mentioned. Although the chimps have better manners and more integrity then most of the dreck on Wall Street.

Anonymous said...

What the city needs is improvements in the existing infrastructure, not growth. NYC does not *need* growth, if there is any growth it's an issue, not something to be happy about.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who claims to know the future is full of crap. Read the books Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for further insight on this issue.

Wow, Wade. You had to read two books in order to comprehend that truism?