Saturday, April 30, 2011

Could the census be correct?

From Gotham Gazette:

The 2010 census poured cold water on Mayor Michael Bloomberg's rosy view that New York City would hit 9 million long before 2030. The census found that, instead of growing to 8,421,789 residents as the census estimated just a few days before the official numbers were released, New York City had only 8,175,153 residents, some 246,636 less than expected.

The estimated brisk growth pace of 5.2 percent since 2000, suddenly became a phlegmatic 2.1 percent. Indeed, if present trends continue New York City will not make it to 9 million until sometime in the decade of 2050. In short, the growth rate, if correct, means that many of the enthusiastic proclamations about the city's unique growth and its attractiveness as a place to live are simply wrong.

Predictably, the mayor, who made his fortune purveying presumably accurate financial information, is not willing to believe that the census's careful enumeration of New York’s population could be correct. He is planning to challenge it, and other officials are supporting that challenge. However, instead of taking the issue to court, they plan to invoke the Census Bureau's own Count Resolution process. This is a technical procedure that generally corrects blatantly wrong counts. After 2000, for example, the Census Bureau placed a number of prisons and college dorms in the wrong cities, counties and towns. When these mistakes were brought to the Census Bureau’s attention, it corrected such obvious errors.

New York's argument for an adjustment is much more complex relying as it does upon the increase in vacancies and the undercounting of immigrants. Indeed, there are at least four reasons to have confidence in the census count.

6 comments:

Snake Plissskin said...

Illegal and legal immigrants and the general disconnect of slackers towards anything government - to say nothing about the systematic undermining of owner-occupied long term residents means that the population has been systematically undercounted for decades - and the percentage increases for each count until it is finally at laughable dimensions.

The population is at least 8.5 million if not 8.75 million.

Census Taker said...

The problem is that we ran out of fingers and toes. Although the supply of toes was limited, most people were willing to give us the finger!

Anonymous said...

If you are broke the Immigration Laws of the United States and are here illegally, you obviously do not want to be counted. In another ten years, there will be more illegal immigrants in Queens than there will be citizens. This is what happens when your politicians don't want to deal with major problems. They wait for the next person to fix it and it never gets fixed. As a result, citizens and taxpayers move out and eventually there is no one left to pay the huge bill that the illegals run up. New York is S0000 OVER. Thanks Mayor Mike.

spy vs SPY said...

Myth

If you are broke the Immigration Laws of the United States and are here illegally, you obviously do not want to be counted. In another ten years, there will be more illegal immigrants in Queens than there will be citizens.

REALITY
TRUE

Myth
This is what happens when your politicians don't want to deal with major problems. They wait for the next person to fix it and it never gets fixed.

REALITY
THEY DON'T WANT TO FIX IT BECAUSE IT DRIVES OUT LONG TERM QUALITY OF LIFE WHINERS, THEY DON'T VOTE AND COMPARED TO WHERE MANY OF THEM CAME FROM, THE MACHINE IS HEAVEN.

FOR THE REPUBLICANS, A NICE SOURCE OF CHEAP LABOR AND DESPERATE TENANTS, AND FOR THE DEMOCRATS, TWEEDING PROGRAMS AND FUTURE TWEEDED VOTERS.

Myth
As a result, citizens and taxpayers move out and eventually there is no one left to pay the huge bill that the illegals run up. New York is S0000 OVER.

REALITY
CORRECT UP TO THE LAST SENTENCE: UNLESS YOU LIVE IN WEST VIRIGINIA OR MAINE, THIS IS NOT JUST NY, BUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, TOO

Myth
Thanks Mayor Mike.

REALITY
YOU FOLKS NEVER EVER GO AFTER CITY COUNCIL OR ALBANY, DO YOU? MIKE IS A CREATURE OF CITY COUNCIL AND THE F%^&*$KED UP STATE GOVERNMENT IS FROM THE FOLKS IN ALBANY. IF IT WASN'T FOR THEM, MIKE AND HIS ILK WOULD NOT EXIST.

BUT AS TO YOU RETURN THEM TO OFFICE EVERY ELECTION THE REALITY IS THIS SITUATION IS YOUR FAULT, DEAR CITIZEN AND VOTER!

RBC said...

Myth
Thanks Mayor Mike.

REALITY
YOU FOLKS NEVER EVER GO AFTER CITY COUNCIL OR ALBANY, DO YOU? MIKE IS A CREATURE OF CITY COUNCIL AND THE F%^&*$KED UP STATE GOVERNMENT IS FROM THE FOLKS IN ALBANY. IF IT WASN'T FOR THEM, MIKE AND HIS ILK WOULD NOT EXIST.
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I would agree with this... but Mayor Mike has been a constant immigrant (legal or illegal) champion since day 1. About a month ago, he wanted the SBA to set up entrepreneur workshops for immigrants - and specifically requested these workshops be available in languages other than English.

On the topic of the census... the census has always under counted NYC. But I agree with "Anonymous" in that many immigrants must have not been counted in this census because wherever I go no one speaks English anymore. I also feel that the tax base continues to flee the city and the bill will come due soon. We probably won't see a repeat of the 70s, but I have a feeling that the atmosphere of the city late '80s/early 90s (sans crack epidemic/crime spree) is starting to rear its head.

Anonymous said...

I would agree with this... but Mayor Mike has been a constant immigrant (legal or illegal) champion since day 1. About a month ago, he wanted the SBA to set up entrepreneur workshops for immigrants - and specifically requested these workshops be available in languages other than English.

Find me one Queens politician, state or local, that doesn't do this. Mayor Mike doesn't do this for his district in Manhattan, but for your representative, Queens.

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