Getting the hell out of Dodge

From the NY Post:

Despite the nation’s longest economic expansion, the Empire State is actually losing population, an analysis of US Census data released Monday reveals.

The total state population as of mid-2019 was 19,453,561 — a drop of 76,790, or 0.4 percent, from the previous year, according to the study by the Empire Center for Public Policy.

...the high cost of living may be catching up with the Big Apple region, historically a magnet for newcomers that offset population losses in economically struggling upstate.

New York’s population has been stagnant over the past decade, with a modest 75,459 increase in residents since 2010, a growth rate of just 0.4 percent, ranking 46th-lowest out of 50 states.

Stagnant growth has real consequences.

The state will likely lose at least one and possibly two congressional seats — and political clout — after the next official decennial census count because of its failure to grow compared to other states.

New York, continuing a decades-long trend, was a net exporter of residents to other states — with 180,649 more residents moving out than moving in from other states over the previous 12 months.

AirBnB has caused rental prices to skyrocket

From Bloomberg:

The cost of Airbnb to New York renters: $616 million.

That’s the conclusion of a new report by city Comptroller Scott Stringer that details the home-sharing website’s impact on housing affordability from 2009 to 2016. It’s no secret to New Yorkers that leasing costs skyrocketed during the time. But to isolate the Airbnb effect, Stringer’s office compared the growth in what rents would have been without listings on the site to what they actually were. Airbnb Inc. disputed the study’s findings, calling them “wrong on the facts” and containing “substantive issues with the methodology.”

Owners who list their apartments for short-term stays essentially are removing those units from the rental market, reducing the supply of housing and pushing up the cost of what remains, according to the report. For each 1 percent of all residential units in a neighborhood listed on Airbnb, rents in that neighborhood went up 1.58 percent, Stringer said. The estimated $616 million impact is for 2016 alone.

NY is really good at making people leave

From the Daily News:

New York over the past year continued to lose more residents to other states than it gained — even as the overall population grew slightly thanks to a continued influx of immigrants, Census data shows.

During the 12-month period ending July 1, the state lost a net 190,508 residents to other states, according to the data. That pushed the net outmigration to over 1 million people since 2010 — the largest of any state, according to a review by the Empire Center, a fiscal watchdog group.

The net loss since 2010 is actually less than the net migration outflow of nearly 1.6 million during the comparable period of 2000-07, the Empire Center’s E.J. McMahon said in the review.

“The stories continue to be a lack of economic opportunity upstate ... and downstate it’s just cost,” McMahon said. “The city and downstate can’t hold people because there’s not enough affordable living.”

Heastie makes his case for legislative pay raises

From the NY Post:

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie claimed today that lawmakers deserve a raise because they’ve never worked harder.

Ignoring the corruption scandals swirling around Albany, Heastie argued in a letter to the Commission on Legislative, Judicial and Executive Compensation that “the complexity and demands” of a legislator’s job “have dramatically increased.”

He pointed out that legislators’ base salary of $79,500 is now worth $53,997 in real purchasing power because there hasn’t been a pay hike since 1999.

Heastie didn’t mention ethics reform, which has been a point of contention between lawmakers, who claim they passed meaningful changes, and critics who contend they haven’t done enough.

The speaker, a Bronx Democrat, also did not recommend a specific new salary, merely pointing to a rate of inflation of about 2 percent a year.

But he noted that the current salary is modest at best for people living in and around the five boroughs.

If salaries aren’t adjusted, Heastie said only inexperienced, retired, or independently wealthy people would be willing to take the job.

Hmmm... inexperienced means that there wouldn't be decades-long incumbency, retired means they may actually show up for work and independently wealthy means they likely won't take bribes. I think I'll stick with no raises as the way to go.

Diner deathwatch

From Crains:

Historians devoted to the study of diners—yes, that's a thing—estimate there were 1,000 diners in the city a generation ago. There are now only 398 establishments that describe themselves as diners or coffee shops, according to city Department of Health records. Recent casualties include Soup Burg on the Upper East Side, the Café Edison in midtown and the El Greco Diner in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn. (See sidebar below for our explanation of exactly what a diner is.)

The star-shaped, 1962-vintage Market Diner in midtown figures to be next. In July, The Real Deal reported that developer Moinian Group had filed with the city to demolish the 11th Avenue building and replace it with a 13-story condominium.

Indeed, something of a diner deathwatch exists among New Yorkers concerned about losing their favorite places for affordable comfort food. Earlier this year, a rumor surfaced on Reddit and Twitter that the popular Neptune Diner in Queens would close, which owner George Katsihtis denies. The clock is also ticking for the Evergreen Diner, which occupies part of the first floor of a parking garage on West 47th Street, just off Times Square. The Evergreen generates about $1.5 million in annual revenue, but barely makes a profit. "One day they will raise my rent and I will close," said co-owner Ilias "Lou" Argena, who pays about $25,000 a month.

"To me, it's not surprising that diners are closing in New York," said Jan Whitaker, a historian in Amherst, Mass., who writes a blog called Restauranting Through History. "Given how expensive everything is in New York, the wonder is they survive at all."

Rents in Queens trending down?

From the NY Post:

While there’s a lot of new construction in hot ’hoods like Astoria and Long Island City, the borough’s median rental price is a mere $2,528, which is down 2.7 percent from last month’s median price of $2,597 and down 10.7 percent from the $2,830 high of June 2014.

The average rental price in Queens is $2,749, which is the same as last month, but 5.1 percent less than a year ago’s high of $2,896, according to a new market report from Douglas Elliman.

Report details major rent squeeze

From Curbed:

When adjusted for inflation, rents throughout New York City have risen a staggering 32 percent since 2002. Think that's bad? Well, it is (as seen here), but in certain neighborhoods, rents have soared twice as much, or even almost threefold. A report released by the nonprofit Community Service Society says that rents in Central Harlem have risen 90 percent in the last 12 years, from a median rent of $821 to 2014's $1,560. Central Harlem is the neighborhood that's most acutely felt the rise in rents since 2002, with Bed-Stuy following with a median rent increase of 63 percent from $921 to $1,500. Other neighborhoods that follow close behind are the lumped areas of Fort Greene/Dumbo/Brooklyn Heights with a 59 percent increase, and Washington Heights/Inwood with a 55 percent increase in median rent (h/t NYDN).

ArBnB does make life harder for everyone

From Wall Street Journal:

Airbnb, an online listing service for short-term accommodations, has long been criticized for driving up apartment rents from Venice Beach to Hell’s Kitchen.

Critics say that people who lease apartments and rent them out to tourists through Airbnb are willing to pay more rent, driving up prices for everyone. Also, critics say, landlords are simply putting units on Airbnb themselves, instead of renting them, decreasing the supply of long term rentals.

Now new research, commissioned by the company from an academic at the University of British Columbia, shows that Airbnb pushes up rents slightly in some major cities across the country.

In New York City, for example, Thomas Davidoff, an assistant professor at the Sauder School of Business, found that Airbnb increases the price of a one-bedroom unit by about $6 a month. In San Francisco, he found that it increases rents by on average about $19 a month.

Mr. Davidoff relied on data provided by the company that said that 80% to 90% of its 1 million listings are residents sharing the home in which they live. He didn’t count those as units lost from the overall housing stock because locals can still live there long-term.

Even without relying on Airbnb’s estimates, Mr. Davidoff said that if one assumes that all listings are investors renting out units solely on Airbnb, the increases are modest. In New York, rents would likely go up around $24 a month and San Francisco around $76 a month.

Airbnb listings aren’t evenly spread across most cities but tend to be concentrated in prime neighborhoods, meaning that popular places could face more pressure on rents than others.

Queens rents now higher than Brooklyn's

From DNA Info:

Queens' rental prices are catching up to Brooklyn's — and surpassing them.

The ascendance of Queens has been a common refrain for more than a year now. Last month's rents — particularly for the "hot" northwest part of the borough that includes Long Island City and Astoria — show that Queens is no longer necessarily cheaper than Kings County.

Queens' median rents jumped 30.7 percent from the same time last year to $2,905 a month for January, according to a report from Douglas Elliman released Thursday.

That was $4 above Brooklyn's median rent, which rose 2.5 percent to $2,901 a month.

Bronx renters can't afford to live there

From the Daily News:

THE BRONX is the least affordable county in the country for renters, a new report shows.

Tenants in the city’s northernmost borough can expect to spend a whopping 68% of their earnings on rent — or almost $2,000 a month for a three-bedroom apartment, according to a RealtyTrac.com study.

The real estate company analyzed more than 500 U.S. counties, using rental data from the U.S. Department for Housing and Urban Development to compile the list.

It compared the average fair market rent of a three-bedroom apartment and divided the annual median household income of each county.

Owning a home in Queens darn near impossible these days

From the NY Post:

“There are homes for first-time buyers, but you have to look around,” he says.

That’s what Ray DeWire and his wife, Brittany, both young middle-class professionals, recently did. They lived in Kew Gardens, where “we were having problems parking our car,” Ray DeWire said.

They wanted to stay in Queens, but “it was tough to find something in Queens,” namely, a one-family house at the right price and with the amenities that they wanted.

Jamaica Estates residents Mekale Jackson and his wife, Aisha, two young art-industry professionals with middle-class incomes, have a year-old daughter whom they want to grow up in a home. But it’s been rough.

“It’s a difficult environment [to buy in New York]. Queens is out of the question,” Mekale Jackson said. “You would have to pay $388,000 and then maybe more to fix up the house. We also want to find a home in a place where we are not going to pay for private school.”

It's ok, we know what you really mean. Let's continue:

One factor in the higher prices locally is that the supply of new units is not growing fast enough. Also, since the housing meltdown of 2008, it has become more difficult for many people to obtain a mortgage.

Another potential roadblock is the average down payment of 20 percent. That means the prospective New York City-area homeowner must have $97,225 up front. Obtaining a mortgage also requires an annual household income of just under $90,000, HSH.com said.

A lot of people want to leave

From Patch:

More than 40 percent of New Yorkers surveyed in a recent Gallup poll said they would leave the state if they could.

Of all 50 states surveyed, New York tied New Jersey and Massachusetts for sixth place–at 41 percent–for the highest percentage of residents who would head for another state if given the chance.

The poll dug a little deeper, too, and asked residents if they were actually planning to move out of the state sometime in the next 12 months. Of those in New York who answered yes (16 percent), here are their reasons why:

Work/Business-related: 15%
Family/Friends: 16%
Weather/Location: 8%
Quality of Life/Change: 5%
School-related: 6%
Cost of Living: 21%
Taxes: 14%

Cost of living rises faster than income

From Crains:

In the decade that ended in 2010, housing and transportation costs rose nearly twice as fast as income for median-income households in the New York metro area, according to a new report tracking the nation's 25 largest metro areas. The report, which was released Thursday morning, also had some good news, however: Despite the jump in costs, the New York area fell into the middle range in the group in terms of affordability, ranking 10th.

Housing and transportation costs in the New York area rose 55% during the 10-year period, while income grew 31%, according to the report by the Center for Housing Policy, an affiliate of the National Housing Conference. More than half of households' income, 56%, goes toward housing and transportation, with housing carrying most of the burden, at 34%. The report, dubbed "Losing Ground: The Struggling of Moderate-Income Households to Afford the Rising Costs of Housing and Transportation," covered New York-area households with annual incomes of $34,389 to $68,778.

The rise of housing and transportation costs in New York outpaced the average for the 25 metro areas, which rose 44% in the decade, driven mainly because of housing expenses.

In New York, the report found that homeowners carry a bigger burden than renters. Renters spend roughly 52% of their income on their home and transportation, versus a homeowner, who spends 61% on those items. Homeowners also lay out slightly more of their income on transportation, 24% versus 21% for renters.

It'll cost ya more to park in LIC

From the Daily News:

Businesses in Queens are slamming the city for driving up parking rates in a move that critics say will force some motorists to pay nearly a thousand more dollars a year to get to work.

Merchants along Skillman Ave. in Long Island City said they were infuriated last week when they saw individual meters replaced with muni-meters - with rates more than doubled.

"I could not believe it. It's disgraceful," said David Hananel, 62, who first noticed the hike last Tuesday - a jump from $3.75 to $8 maximum for 12 hours.

"They're driving people out of the city," said Hananel, who commutes from Long Beach, L.I., to his job at Printing Resource of NY/NJ on 32nd Place.

Rates are being adjusted throughout the city as part of a larger plan, according to a city Department of Transportation spokeswoman who said the shift to muni-meters began in Queens this summer.

Similar changes are taking place this week in Rego Park, Kew Gardens, Middle Village and Forest Hills.

Cost of living about to go way up

From the NY Post:

Big rigs that carry everything from food to medicine into the city will get slammed with monster-sized toll hikes on Port Authority bridges and tunnels -- and the massive increases will certainly get passed on to consumers.

New York’s crossings are already the costliest in the country, but a new series of toll hikes the Port Authority approved yesterday will see them balloon over the next four years, beginning next month.

Everyone who uses the PA’s facilities was hit with an increase, but truckers were hit the hardest.

Cash tolls on a 5-axle tractor trailer -- the type of truck commonly used to make deliveries -- will increase from $40 to $65 starting next month, eventually climbing to a whopping $105 per trip in 2015.

90 percent of goods sold in the Big Apple are brought in by truck...

Big Apple businesses -- already paying exorbitant fees to have their goods trucked in -- are preparing for the worst.

Young people plan to bolt from the state

Editorial from the Daily News:

Here are facts that should be tattooed on the forehead of every elected official in Albany: One out of four adult New Yorkers - including one out of three below the age of 30 - plans to flee the state in the next five years.

So found a NY1/YNN-Marist poll, which also asked why people are itching to leave - and discovered, of course, that it's the economy, stupid.

The most cited factors for flight were New York's notorious cost of living, its highest-in-the-nation tax burden and its chronic shortage of jobs. All of which are the work of state leaders.

Keep in mind that this dismal survey was taken well after the approval of Gov. Cuomo's heralded first budget, which cut spending, avoided tax hikes and got done on time. On the basis of that one accomplishment, some legislators seem to think they've done enough reforming for the year. New Yorkers obviously disagree - and rightly so.

Cuomo's spending plan succeeded mainly in stopping the bleeding. What he and the Legislature must now tackle is the harder work of lowering the cost of living, easing the tax burden and spurring job creation.

Capping property taxes - one of the key proposals that Cuomo is currently barnstorming for - is an obvious and much-needed step in the right direction.

So, too, is getting a handle on the skyrocketing cost of government retirement benefits - by enrolling new hires in a 401(k)-style pension system and sharing health costs.

Other musts include shedding excess bureaucracy, deep-sixing frivolous or ineffective programs, controlling Medicaid outlays and rolling back costly and unnecessary mandates.

Then, maybe, people will want to live and work in New York again. Otherwise, they'll vote with their moving vans.

If you can afford it here, you can afford anywhere

From Urbanite:

The Brookings analysis of Census data for 2007-09 shows that the New York/Northern New Jersey area lost a net 29,292 of 25-34 year olds in that two-year span.

On the opposite end is the Austin-Round Rock, Texas, area, renowned for its music scene, which had a net gain of 14,318 so-called Millenials, followed by Denver-Aurora, Colo., which had a gain of 11, 207.

The loss of these folks also reveals “a serious problem in finding jobs,” probably as a result of the cratered finance industry, said John Logan, a demographer at Brown University.

In the long term, the trend will hurt Gotham, said the experts, as young, creative people are essential to a city’s future. These are “the generation of people who will be the leaders,” Logan said.

Young single people may not mind sharing a one bedroom with room mates, but when the nesting instinct hits, New York is an economic nonstarter, noted Sean Thompson, a 29-year-old bartender who shares a $2,000 a month studio in Battery Park City with his 30-year-old wife, a public school teacher.

“We both agree completely that New York is not the place to raise a family,” Thompson said.

We're the poorest big city in America

From the Daily News:

I hate to break it to you, New Yorkers, but you're not as rich as you think.

Your median family income of $56,000 looks decent on paper - ranking 19th in the country. But you're burning through those paychecks to cover some of the highest taxes, housing costs, energy bills, health premiums and grocery prices in the country.

Factor in that sky-high cost of living, and New York's real income drops below $41,000. That's the lowest in the country, behind Mississippi at $45,000.

And real income in the five boroughs ranks lower than Detroit's.

That's right, New Yorkers. You're living in the poorest big city in America.

Middle class heading for greener pastures

From the NY Post:

Native New Yorker Marie King loves the Big Apple and always will, but she had to head south with her 16-year-old son, Michael, to pursue her goal of owning a home.

King, 52, a retired NYPD detective and single mom, left her rental in the leafy Pelham Bay section of The Bronx to own her own place in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The Post reached out to ex-New Yorkers after an Empire Center for NY State Policy study found that a whopping 1.5 million residents abandoned the state from 2000 to 2008 -- most from New York City.

King and other refugees said they were squeezed out.

"I couldn't afford a home in my old neighborhood. They go for $500,000 and up. It was ridiculous," said King, who works part-time and collects a pension.

She lives in a duplex that cost less than $185,000. Her monthly mortgage payment is $1,100, which covers her $2,000 property-tax bill. There is no state income tax in Florida.

King also was pleasantly surprised to learn that her auto insurance was $800 a year, or less than half the $1,700 she paid in the city.

People leaving NY City & State in droves

From the NY Post:

New Yorkers are fleeing the state and city in alarming numbers -- and costing a fortune in lost tax dollars, a new study shows.

More than 1.5 million state residents left for other parts of the United States from 2000 to 2008, according to the report from the Empire Center for New York State Policy. It was the biggest out-of-state migration in the country.

The vast majority of the migrants, 1.1 million, were former residents of New York City -- meaning one out of seven city taxpayers moved out.

What's worse is that the families fleeing New York are being replaced by lower-income newcomers, who consequently pay less in taxes.

Overall, the ex-New Yorkers earn about 13 percent more than those who moved into the state, the study found.

But they will be replaced with a million more vibrant, diverse, low wage workers by 2030. Doesn't that count for something? Hey check this out from the NY Post:

If he wins a third term, Mayor Bloomberg promised yesterday to transform the city so it'll have the best public schools in the nation by 2013, a far lower crime rate, better mass transit and more waterfront and park options than ever.

Eight days before Election Day, Bloomberg outlined a vision for the future that focused on key projects and quality-of-life initiatives undertaken during his first two terms, from completing the No. 7 subway train to the Far West Side to opening two miles of new parkland along the Manhattan side of the East River.

Yet more parks for Manhattan, eh? How are you going to do all this with a shrinking tax base and the impending collapse of the commercial real estate market, financial genius?