Queens winning in losing residents

 

NY Post

New York City is becoming the shriveled Apple.

Three of Gotham’s five boroughs saw some of the largest population declines in America last fiscal year, with only Manhattan bucking the post-COVID trend, according to US Census data released Thursday.

The population of Queens County plummeted by 50,112 residents in the 12 months ending July 1, 2022 — the third largest raw drop of any county in the US, behind only Los Angeles County (90,704) and Chicago’s Cook County (68,314).

Right behind Queens on the list of declines was Kings County (Brooklyn), which lost 46,970 residents over the same period, and Bronx County, where the population dropped by 41,143 residents.

Richmond County — also known as Staten Island — saw its population drop by just 2,351 residents over the same one-year period.

By contrast, Manhattan — which lost nearly 100,000 residents in 2021 — was the only borough that reversed its decline, with the population increasing by 17,472 residents in fiscal year 2022.

The increase is largely down to foreign and domestic migration.

 

Minus one in the House

 

NY Post

Missed it by that much.

New York will lose one seat in the House of Representatives next year based on population data released by the US Census Bureau on Monday — and was just 89 residents short of keeping all of its seats.

The Empire State’s delegation will shrink from 27 to 26 as a result of the 2020 census, officials said. 

“The state of New York has experienced negative net domestic migration, meaning there were more people moving out of the state of New York over the last decade than moving into the state,” said Karen Battle, chief of the population division for the Census Bureau.

How voters’ districts will change won’t be known until August at the earliest, when more detailed census data is expected.

New York is one of seven states poised to lose a seat in the House. The others are California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Five states will gain one seat — Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon — while Texas will gain two.

The once-a-decade national head count determines how the 435 seats in the House are divided among the 50 states based on the population changes recorded.

Recent de Blasio appointee to monitor city census finds time to go electioneering

NY Post


Mayor de Blasio’s new census czar may be counting votes for her next election campaign, rather than Big Apple residents, stunned Democratic Party officials said.

Newly minted 2020 Census honcho Julie Menin is supposed to be finding ways to improve the city’s abysmal 60 percent participation rate in the every-10-year census by getting undocumented immigrants to participate.

But at the same time, she’s courting tony East Side 
political clubs to help solidify a future run for Manhattan district attorney, according to three borough district leaders.

“She’s doing this to build up her political relationships. Everyone assumes she took the job to brush up her political chops,” said one observer, who requested anonymity and said it’s an open secret that Menin plans to run for Manhattan DA in 2021.

 “The city does have major underrepresentation problems with the census count in lower-income and immigrant neighborhoods. But the East Side of Manhattan doesn’t fall into either category.”

Charter changes up for discussion

This is to let you know that the city's Charter Review Commission is having a series of meetings in the boroughs next week, Queens' turn is Thursday evening, July 26 at Queens Borough Hall. The Charter is basically New York City's "constitution" that lays out the broad parameters for administration and operation of the city. Please see the attached flyer for additional information. - Jessica Douglas, Queens Borough Director of the Mayor's Community Affairs office

Community Boards:
1) Whether to place term limits for Community Board members as a method to encourage diversity.
2) How to Standardize and enhance the existing appointment process
3) Provide additional support in resources; particularly as it relates to urban planning
4) Things to adopt methods to ensure Community Boards are representative of the community they serve.

Campaign Finance:
1) The Reduction of spending limits (no amounts provided).
2) Increasing the public match ( no ratio provided).
3) Look into the timeline for implementation given that candidates are raising money under the current system.

Elections
1) Language accessibility ( providing interpreters, translation of ballots and materials, and community advisory groups)
2) Instant Runoff Voting - Look to implement within local primary elections and for citywide elections (where runoffs is provided) or to extend to all offices (Borough Presidents and City Council offices)

A Citywide Civic Engagement Program
1) how such an entity or office could support, supplement, or coordinate the City’s existing efforts in this area, including the recently announced DemocracyNYC initiative.
2) how such an entity or office could facilitate the expansion of participatory budgeting while working within legal and operational constraints
3) where such an entity or office should be situated;.
4) whether such an entity or office should be independent and non-partisan.

Redistricting for City Council Seats
1) In light of the lack of DOJ oversight, solicit testimony from experts and affected communities about the effects of districting process on racial and ethnic minorities and their voting power.
2) Look at altering the Districting Commission to promote independence, including the appointment process.
3) Studying whether there are ways to counteract effects of an undercount in the next census.

A break from building

From Crains:

The demise of the controversial 421-a tax break hasn’t eliminated interest in residential building in the city, but it has reduced it to a level not seen since the financial crisis.

That’s the bottom line on this week’s release of the latest building-permits data by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Here are the numbers through July.

Overcrowding leads to bad outcomes

From the NY Times:

According to the latest Census Bureau data, about 9 percent of all households — or nearly 280,000 units — in New York City have more than one person per room, a common government measure of crowding. A decade ago, the rate was 8 percent. The change represents nearly a 13 percent increase. By comparison, the national crowding rate is 3.4 percent.

The crowding problem in New York worsens considerably in specific neighborhoods, particularly those with large working-class and immigrant populations where it is not unusual for two families to cram into apartments intended for one, and laborers to sleep two, three or more to a room.

While the Bronx and Brooklyn have the highest percentage of crowded units among the boroughs, according to Census Bureau data from 2014, the community district with the highest rate of crowding is in Queens and encompasses Elmhurst and southern Corona. There, a quarter of all residential units are considered crowded. A study published in February by StreetEasy.com found that five of the top 10 most crowded neighborhoods in the city were in central Queens.

The overcrowded dwelling typically finds its most severe expression in illegally converted basement and cellar apartments, most of them overcrowded and riddled with safety hazards such as shoddy construction, dangerous wiring and improper means of exit in the case of a fire.

Permit plunge!

From Crains:

The great rush for housing permits in New York City to lock in the lucrative 421-a tax break for apartment buildings gave way to a precipitous decline in July.

The number of permits issued that month fell by 90% from June, according to statistics released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau. The fall-off was especially steep in Queens, at 98%, and Brooklyn, 97%. The terms of the tax break expired in mid June before state lawmakers renewed and revised the city's program effective in 2016, requiring 25% to 30% of units in 421-a projects be affordable citywide.

Why Asians love Bayside

From NY1:

On Bell Boulevard, there are signs that the demographics in Bayside are changing. Whites still account for the majority of the residents, but census numbers show that the Asian population has tripled in the last two decades.

In 1990, the number of Asians living here was a little more than 5,000. Today, it's around 15,000, according to census estimates.

There are 10,000 Chinese and Korean residents here, and while their population is on the rise, the number of white residents are declining, according to Census estimates from 2008 to 2012. There were 30,000 white residents in 1990. Today, 21,000 live here. Many are not only leaving the neighborhood, but the city as well.

"Cause it's so expensive," said one resident. "It's crazy here. My day will come."

So what's the draw for many Asians? Most say it's the neighborhood's high-performing school district and the after-school programs in the area.

The other part is the beautiful homes and quiet tree-lined streets.

How many more people can we absorb?

From the Queens Chronicle:

Queens County is growing, and the population of the borough is nearing an all-time high of 2.3 million, Census figures estimated last week.

Nearly halfway through the decade, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the borough’s population as 2,296,175, an increase of 2.9 percent from 2010, or about 65,000 people. That makes the borough larger than every city in the country except New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and more populous than 15 states.

Queens is still not as large as Brooklyn, which topped 2.5 million and was the fastest-growing borough so far this decade. Both boroughs grew by just under 1 percent in 2013 alone, and were the second and third fastest-growing counties in the state.

Queens is still the 10th most-populated county in the nation, though it may soon be surpassed by the faster-growing and geographically much larger Riverside County, Calif.

The results of the 2010 Census, which claimed the borough had only grown by a mere 1,343 people since 2000, baffled many who pointed to the spur in development and demand for real estate, especially in Western Queens and Flushing, over the previous decade as a sign the population of Queens had to have grown by a larger number. Most notable was that Astoria lost a significant number of residents according to the 2010 Census, a claim officials found questionable at the time as the neighborhood has attracted new immigrants and residents from elsewhere in the country during the past decade.

Periodic updates since the 2010 Census have shown the population of the borough growing far more rapidly. Queens grew by about 40,000 people between 2010 and 2012 and another 25,000 since.

Driving is faster than mass transit

From the NY Times:

Most New York City residents do not lack for access to some form of public transit. And advocates are always extolling the virtues of subway, bus, rail or ferry over sitting — and stewing — in gridlock inside a car.

But while public transit might be preferable when it comes to controlling stress, driving is still the fastest way to get to and from work. At least that’s what a recent Census Bureau survey found.

The mean travel time for public transportation riders was more than 47 minutes, compared with under 32 minutes for people who drove themselves and 37 minutes for people who car-pooled. One-third of mass transit riders spent an hour or more commuting, according to the 2011 American Community Survey released by the census this month.

Driving has been a quicker way to get to work for New Yorkers than public transit for several years.

5 lbs of sausage in a 1 lb bag!

From the Daily News:

Recent Queens population statistics show the borough is growing despite a lackluster showing in the 2010 Census.

Officials say the new numbers boost their claim the Census count was flawed.

From April 2010 to July 2011, the population of Queens grew by 17,126, according to data released last week but the U.S. Census Bureau.

The new figures place the population of Queens at 2,247,848.

Census results released last year stated the population grew by just 1,343 from 2000 to 2010.

It was flawed because of sanctuary city policies and tone of illegal conversions. But let's blame it on incompetence instead.

Census Bureau rejects Bloomberg request

From Urbanite:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg's effort to get the city's official population modified higher under the 2010 Census was rejected Sunday, according to reports.

Last August, the city filed a formal challenge, saying the Big Apple's population was closer to 8.4 million and not the 8.175 million counted in the Census.

The mayor blamed faulty Census-taking in immigrant-rich neighborhoods across Brooklyn and Queens for the lower number. Census officials said the city's complaint isn't a type of error that can be corrected.

Census breakdown is interesting

From the Daily News:

City demographers who went digging through 2010 Census data have made some surprising discoveries about the nation's most diverse borough.

The number of Ecuadorians in Queens jumped by more than 19% in the last decade, while the Colombian population declined - revealing nuances about the Latino community in the borough.

And while the booming Chinese population has received much attention, the most dramatic increase among Asians was among Filipinos, whose ranks have grown 25% since the 2000 Census.

Half of the city's Asian population lives in Queens, with 39% identified as Chinese, 23% Indian and 13% Korean.

The borough's Hispanic population is divided almost evenly among groups: Puerto Rican, 17%; Ecuadorian, 16%; Mexican, 15%; Dominican, 14% and Colombian, 12%.

Several factors led to diner's demise

From the Times Ledger:

The Forest Diner on 108th Street in Forest Hills closed last month after slinging food for about 30 years, and some residents said its passing was a watershed moment in the history of the neighborhood.

Chai Frouz owns a store next to the diner near 63rd Drive and said the area is not the same as when the diner opened in the 1980s.

“There used to be a line to get in there on Sundays,” said Frouz, “But not anymore. The neighborhood changed.”

The numbers back up his story.

According to data from the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census, the population in both Rego Park and Forest Hills declined from 44,189 to 43,600 and 70,204 to 68,733 people, respectively.

Citywide, the weak growth numbers reported by the census were disputed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

In Rego Park and Forest Hills, those population declines went hand-in-hand with housing vacancy rates that in some cases doubled over the 10-year period.

In 2000, the rental vacancy rate in Rego Park was 2 percent. In 2010, it was 3.8.

That number jumped from 2 percent to 4.4 percent in Forest Hills over the same period.

The two neighborhoods also became more diverse in the 10 years between each Census, with Asian and Hispanic populations increasing by several percentage points.

A representative from Zand Realty, which is trying to sell the vacant space, said the economy was to blame for the diner’s closing.

Immigrants demand their own voting districts

From the Daily News:

State officials must draw new district lines that give growing Queens immigrant groups a stronger voice, advocates demanded this week during a nearly six-hour public hearing.

A joint Senate-Assembly body that oversees redistricting has held public sessions throughout New York since July - and the meeting Wednesday in Queens drew one of the largest crowds in the state.

"There's a constant need to pay attention to new immigrant enclaves," said state Sen. Michael Gianaris (D-Astoria), who testified at the hearing. "It's our obligation to do what we can to integrate them into society and into government, [and] the best way to do that ... is to unite them as a community of interest."

States across the country are preparing to redraw district lines based on Census 2010 data. At Queens Borough Hall, nearly 100 speakers asked the state to avoid gerrymandering politics and instead use the demographic statistics to draw boundaries.

"The Asian-American community spoke together with one voice," said Jerry Vattamala, a staff attorney with the Asian-American Legal Defense and Education Fund, which is part of a coalition of local Asian groups advocating for fair redistricting. "We suffered for 10 years with current district lines. It would be unbearable to suffer another 10."

Shouldn't district lines be drawn more or less along neighborhood lines instead of making sure you create voting blocks of specific ethnic groups? For services and representation, the shared interest should be community, not ethnicity. What is proposed is exactly the type of gerrymandering we have now.

P.S. Michael Gianaris is a pandering jackass.

Mapping out the numbers

DNAinfo.com has released an interactive Crime & Safety Report ranking the safety of every neighborhood in the five boroughs. This unprecedented analysis of data from the NYPD and U.S. Census Bureau reveals startling results, including an increase in murder, rape, and robbery rates for the first time in decades.

Queens for example, thought to be one of the safer boroughs in NYC, boasts the highest number of auto thefts for all of New York City. Murders in Queens increased 22% from 2009 to 2010.

Times has explanation for census undercount

From the NY Times:

...an informal house-to-house New York Times survey of three representative square blocks where the Census Bureau said vacancies had increased and the population had declined since 2000 suggests that the city’s outrage is somewhat justified. In those blocks alone, census takers appear to have missed dozens of New Yorkers and to have overestimated the number of vacant apartments.

Often, though, owners of illegally divided houses are reluctant to disclose the number of tenants, who tend to include people who are in the country illegally and are leery of providing any information to the government. A visit from Times reporters may have proved less intimidating to landlords and residents.

City officials say as many as 80,000 residents appear to have been systematically overlooked in crowded immigrant neighborhoods like East Elmhurst and Jackson Heights in Queens and Sunset Park, Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst in Brooklyn.

One census taker who not only lives in East Elmhurst, but was also assigned to make follow-up visits to neighborhood addresses to determine if they were occupied, acknowledged the challenges of trying to find people who do not necessarily want to be found.

Census irregularities, explained

From Metro:

Councilwoman Diana Reyna theorized that “hipsters” may be part of the cause for the inconsistency of the Census numbers, stating that some of them “only want to be counted in their home state.” She also added that they might not participate in the Census because it wouldn’t be “cool.”

Another possible reason for the apparent undercount: illegal immigrants who are simply too afraid to talk to the government. There are an estimated 500,000 in New York.

It’s also possible that people did leave the city for economic reasons and that the undercount is actually not that far “under.”

Another explanation for the oddities in the Census Bureau’s data is illegal subdivisions of housing. For example, if a person is illegally subletting his house to a family and actually lives with eight people, he is not likely to admit this to a Census worker. He would either lie about how many people he lives with, in which case the data is incorrect, or he would not bother answering the door at all, in which case his house gets counted as vacant despite the nine people living there.

Let's just say that thanks to our sanctuary city status and lax policies on illegal conversions we will never even come close to knowing how many people actually live here.

Photo from Free Williamsburg

Could the census be correct?

From Gotham Gazette:

The 2010 census poured cold water on Mayor Michael Bloomberg's rosy view that New York City would hit 9 million long before 2030. The census found that, instead of growing to 8,421,789 residents as the census estimated just a few days before the official numbers were released, New York City had only 8,175,153 residents, some 246,636 less than expected.

The estimated brisk growth pace of 5.2 percent since 2000, suddenly became a phlegmatic 2.1 percent. Indeed, if present trends continue New York City will not make it to 9 million until sometime in the decade of 2050. In short, the growth rate, if correct, means that many of the enthusiastic proclamations about the city's unique growth and its attractiveness as a place to live are simply wrong.

Predictably, the mayor, who made his fortune purveying presumably accurate financial information, is not willing to believe that the census's careful enumeration of New York’s population could be correct. He is planning to challenge it, and other officials are supporting that challenge. However, instead of taking the issue to court, they plan to invoke the Census Bureau's own Count Resolution process. This is a technical procedure that generally corrects blatantly wrong counts. After 2000, for example, the Census Bureau placed a number of prisons and college dorms in the wrong cities, counties and towns. When these mistakes were brought to the Census Bureau’s attention, it corrected such obvious errors.

New York's argument for an adjustment is much more complex relying as it does upon the increase in vacancies and the undercounting of immigrants. Indeed, there are at least four reasons to have confidence in the census count.

Is this guy for real?

From Crains:

The topic of whether New York City has been shortchanged by the 2010 census is certainly a hot button issue. The mayor continues to insist the census takers missed as many as 200,000 residents because they could neither count people in apartment buildings nor find immigrants who had no interest in being enumerated.

Now comes a very provocative piece by Harvard economist Edward Glaeser, an expert on cities, which suggests the Bureau of the Census might be right.

Mr. Glaeser, in a piece on The New York Times' Economix blog, looked at the number of new housing units created in the city in the last decade. He notes that despite the supposed building boom, New York added only 170,000 new housing units in the 2000 decade, an increase of 5.3%.

Typically, he adds, population growth lags the number of new housing units by a couple of percentage points because household size is shrinking. He finds lots of evidence to support the idea that growth is in line with housing creation, which means the less-than-expected 2.1% increase is on the mark.

If true, the Bloomberg administration should start doing some hard thinking. In part, the housing shortfall is the result of the financial crisis that delayed major development initiatives at Atlantic Yards, Hudson Yards, Coney Island and Willets Point, to name only a few. The administration is not responsible for that.

Other administrations, however, would be considering measures to spur more construction, as Ed Koch did in the early 1980s. So far, the administration isn't interested in that approach; maybe it is time for a change in plan.

Why would we need more construction if many of the already built units are sitting empty? Why are taxpayers expected to foot any of the bills for Atlantic Yards, Hudson Yards, Coney Island and Willets Point - all private developments? How about tax incentives to get people to stay here instead of for developers who help drive them out?