The LIRR's Ides Of March

NY Post

The MTA was warned a decade ago that the Long Island Rail Road’s Jamaica hub would be overwhelmed and face frequent commute meltdowns — like the ones commuters have been forced to endure all week, The Post has learned.

The dire prediction came in an analysis of the Jamaica, Queens station’s capacity, completed in 2012, that simulated service changes nearly identical to the one launched by the MTA this week to its new $11 billion terminal on the East Side of Manhattan and found it would overwhelm operations at the station.

“Evaluation of the new operation on the existing conditions indicates an inability of the current infrastructure to accommodate the higher volume of service during the morning peak period and evening westbound direction due to cascading delays,” the analysis determined.

The simulation showed trains arriving into Jamaica on-time 93% of the time under the then-current runs, even when encountering routine service disruptions, like a medical emergency on a platform or a mechanical problem with a train.

But the on-time percentage with the new service plummeted to just 72%, a 21% point drop, the analysis prepared by San Diego-based TranSystems Corporation determined.

The prophetic study found that the operational collapse occurred even if the MTA simplified the Jamaica operation by axing one-seat service from Long Island to Brooklyn and instead ran a shuttle to Atlantic Terminal — and even if officials axed timed transfers to boost station capacity by reducing the amount of time trains spend parked at the platforms.

A key fix, the analysis determined, was to replace the low-speed switches that run through Jamaica Station — which limit trains to just 15 mph — with more modern systems that allow trains to run at 30 mph or faster.

MTA officials approved spending $85 million to do just that in 2020 — some eight years after the engineering report was completed. That project is not expected to be completed until December 2027.

It does not appear that the MTA ever made the analysis public, but it was heavily excerpted in an academic article that the firm subsequently prepared, which was published in 2014.