SD15 is neck-and-neck

From Siena College:

The Siena College Research Institute today released two new State Senate polls – one currently held by a Queens Democrat and one currently held by an Erie County Republican. In the 15th SD, Democratic Senator Joseph Addabbo, Jr. and Republican New York City Councilman Eric Ulrich are locked in a tight race. Addabbo has the support of 45 percent of likely voters, and Ulrich is supported by 43 percent.

“The seat in Queens – despite its overwhelming 33-point Democratic enrollment advantage – is viewed by Republicans as an opportunity to defeat a Democratic incumbent and increase their majority. There’s no question that the Democrats are going to have their hands full in trying to hold on to this seat. Addabbo and Ulrich are separated by just two points, with one in eight voters still undecided,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.

Addabbo has the support of 45 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent support for Ulrich.  Ulrich has the support of 76 percent of Republicans, while Addabbo has support from 63 percent of Democrats.  Ulrich has a commanding 57-27 percent lead among independents. Addabbo leads by five points in the portion of the district he currently represents, while Ulrich leads by five points in the areas new to this district, and has an eight-point lead in his current council district.

Ulrich is viewed favorably by 42 percent of voters and unfavorably by 17 percent, with 41 percent having no opinion. Addabbo’s favorability rating is 40-33 percent. Voters view the State Senate unfavorably by a 49-39 percent margin.  Likely voters are evenly divided on which party should control the Senate, and on the generic re-elect question, with 40 percent wanting Addabbo re-elected and 41 percent preferring ‘someone else.’

“In this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge – including a sizeable number of conservative Democrats – and independents look a lot more like Republicans than Democrats, we have Addabbo, the incumbent, running virtually even with Ulrich, who now represents about one-third of these voters in the City Council,” Greenberg said. “While Addabbo is more known than Ulrich to voters, Ulrich has the better favorability rating.  The presidential race looks very similar to the senate race.  In other words, this figures to be a barn burner straight through to Election Day.”